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Rate cuts could make
the economy worse, not better
by Dr. Ros
Altmann
(All material on this
page is subject to copyright and must not be
reproduced without the author's
permission.)
We have just had another desperate bid to kick-start
our economy, with base rates being cut to an
unprecedented 1.5%. The Government says lower rates
are essential to get things moving again and that
this is the right thing to do. Wrong!
It is a grave mistake to push rates down so low.
Panic rate cuts from already very low levels will
make little or no difference and may even make our
economic difficulties worse, not better.
Cutting rates is supposed to help increase borrowing
and make repayments more affordable, which should
support economic activity. Also, if banks can borrow
money more cheaply, they should be able to lend more
cheaply. That sounds good in theory doesn't it?
But, in practice it's just not that simple. In
my view, cutting rates to these crazily low levels
will not stimulate the economy and could actually
damage it. When people see the Government bringing
rates down again and again, they feel a sense of
panic and think twice before spending. Also, when
people earn less on their savings, they will spend
less. At 3%, rates were quite low enough to provide
some stimulus, but at 1½ %, they are
damaging. Japan brought its rates down to zero but
that did not help its economy and it won't help
ours either.
When a patient is sick and the medicine does not
seem to be working, the sensible doctor will either
change the treatment, or give things time to work.
However, the Government just keeps on doubling the
dose in the desperate hope it will suddenly work,
when evidence suggests otherwise. Medicines have
side effects and pumping more and more into the
patient could kill rather than cure.
Disgracefully, in its misguided panic attempts to
help the economy, the Government is hurting millions
of people, particularly pensioners, who deserve
better treatment. Many ordinary, hard-working
citizens who put money aside to supplement the
disgracefully low state pension (it is the lowest in
the developed world!) are being damaged by cutting
interest rates.
This has the same effect as cutting the state
pension! Nobody would suggest that is a sensible
policy, but as it is happening behind the scenes the
Government gets away with it. The reduction from 5%
to 1.5% in just 3 months is like a £10 a week
cut in the state pension for every £15,000
that someone saved. If they have £30,000 of
savings, this is like cutting the state pension by
£20 a week!
But it is even worse than this. Because the
Government is also robbing many of these pensioners
of their pension credit. It has refused to recognise
that their savings income is cut.
Pension Credit means-tests do not look at the actual
amount people earn on their savings, but look at how
much savings they have and then just assume people
are earning 10% a year (yes, 10%!) interest to
calculate their income. Even after recent rate cuts
with many savings accounts paying less than 1%
interest, the 10% assumption remains, Government
says their income is much higher than it is and,
therefore, does not pay them the right benefits.
This is forcing pensioners into poverty.
It is a disgrace and it MUST change urgently. I call
on all MPs to insist that the Government adjusts
pension credit payments immediately to reflect the
dramatic reduction in interest rates and alleviate
some of the damage it is causing to savers.
Pensioners are spenders, not savers, they need their
money to live on and any cuts in their savings
income will cut their spending too. There are around
8 million pensioners with savings and as they cut
spending, this will damage economic growth.
So, if interest rate cuts won't work, what could
we do? Let's look at the problem. The economic
crisis was caused by banks lending far too much to
businesses and households who cannot repay. They
also invested depositors' money in complex
financial instruments that turned out to be
worthless. Again, theoretical models said there was
little or no risk, (just as models today say rate
cuts will stimulate spending) but it was not true in
practice. Billions of pounds were thrown away, but
noone noticed until it was too late. The
Government's financial Regulator was asleep at
the wheel. It allowed banks to lend irresponsibly
and to reward their staff just for issuing more
loans, with no concerns about repayment. So there
was little or not regulation on lending, but
draconian rules for investors. Financial advisers
were drowned in red tape when trying to sell
pensions.
Of course, all of this was great for the economy.
Lots of borrowing, banks reporting huge (fictitious)
profits, bankers making millions and everyone
spending rather than saving - no wonder growth was
strong. On top of that, the Government itself
borrowed huge sums by expanding public spending way
beyond its revenues. Much of our growth was based on
borrowed money, so we have been living beyond our
means for years and cutting back is painful. This is
the problem we are trying to deal with.
We need a carefully thought out and better-targeted
response to this crisis, rather than panic measures
that could make things worse. If we want to get
loans to businesses, then we must do so directly,
rather than throwing money at the banks and cutting
rates in the hope that something might start to
happen.
The Government must help pensioners NOW. It must
adjust pension credit payments to reflect the fact
that nobody is earning 10% interest on their savings
and to undo some of the damage that has been done by
lower rates. Forcing pensioners into poverty is not
a decent way to behave and as our population ages,
it is vital that we encourage, rather than punish
savers.
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