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How the City has ruined
our presents and futures
by Dr. Ros
Altmann
(All material on this
page is subject to copyright and must not be
reproduced without the author's
permission.)
Investors are told that if they are willing to take
more risk and invest in the stock market they will
be rewarded over the longer term because of the
'equity risk premium'. Thanks to a belief in
that so-called axiom, millions of people's
pension savings have largely been devastated by the
credit crunch.
Pension funds have plunged in value as stock markets
collapsed, while the pension income available to new
retirees has plummeted as the Bank of England prints
money to buy gilts and drive interest rates down.
Employers are cutting contributions to their
workers' pension schemes too as the economic
downturn hits their revenues. My report,
Planning for Retirement: You're on
your own, which is available for
download at www.metlife.co.uk/rp, examines
important issues facing people preparing for
retirement.
The credit crunch delivered the knockout punch but
problems have been building up for years. Analysis
from the report shows someone who paid £24,000
contributions over the last 10 years into a defined
contribution pension scheme, invested in the stock
market, would now have a fund worth £21,000.
Defined contribution pension schemes have fallen
more than 25% since the start of the credit crunch.
Pension planning has traditionally relied on stock
market growth to provide good pensions but it has
not worked out.
The entire UK pension system has been based on a bet
that equities would always do well enough over the
long term to deliver good pensions. Generous final
salary schemes - as well as forecasts for good
personal pensions - all relied on the equity gamble
paying off. The expected strong equity returns also
enabled successive governments to cut UK state
pensions over time.
The idea that equity markets might not deliver over
the long term was never seriously entertained by
policymakers. Nobody explained to workers that they
were effectively gambling their future security on
the stock market without any form of insurance to
protect themselves against the risks of poor equity
returns and rising life expectancy.
A survey by MetLife of people aged 55-64,
illustrated the human cost of the credit crunch.
More than half (54%) said their pensions would fall
short of expectations and a third thought they had
wasted their money and wished they had not bothered
with pensions. A majority (56%) said they would now
continue working into retirement.
The added problem for those just retiring is that
low interest rates mean the income streams they can
buy with their decimated pension pots is also low.
They could invest in drawdown annuities and stay
exposed to equities in the hope that a stock market
recovery will boost their pension pots in the long
term. But this implies more risk.
Another alternative, for those in pre- and
post-retirement phases, is to invest in equities but
to take out some insurance against the potential
downside. Everyone knows their house could be
damaged by fire or flood and they may need some
insurance against these risks. But pension savers
were never told their pension could be decimated by
poor stock market returns - even over the long-term.
So they didn't know they needed to consider
insuring themselves.
But insurance is available. One of the ways to do
this is to look at products known as unit-linked
guarantees. They may not be cheap, but they do offer
some security. Blind faith in the old idea that
long-term investors would always do well in the
stock market has let millions of people down. The
effects of this pensions crisis could be even more
long-lasting than the current economic crisis and
people need good financial advice. But challenging
the traditional City thinking about pension
investment is long overdue.
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